After a lacklustre 1-0 friendly win over Australia on Friday night, it is back to the Euro 2024 qualification campaign for Gareth Southgate’s side on Tuesday night.
The game is live on Channel 4 with a 7:45 kick-off time and we are here with our best England vs Italy Predictions as part of our full match preview…
England vs Italy Betting Tips:
Back Any Player to Score a Header at 7/4
Back Jude Bellingham to score anytime at 10/3
*Odds correct as of 10AM, Monday 16 October, 2023.
A win on Tuesday night would seal the deal for England and their qualification for Euro 2024 in Germany, as victory would make it mathematically impossible for both Italy and Ukraine to overtake the Three Lions. This is because they face one another in the final round of games and both sides can’t take three points.
Qualifying with two games to spare would be a very impressive feat and it was all kickstarted with a tremendous 1-2 win in Naples over Italy. Declan Rice and Harry Kane scored that evening and once Ukraine had been brushed aside at home in their second game of the group stage, the path looked pretty clear for Southgate’s side to partake in Euro 2024.
Whilst England’s route to the finals has been relatively plain sailing, the same cannot be said of the Italians. Roberto Mancini led Gli Azzurri to Euro 2020 glory by beating England on penalties at Wembley Stadium but he followed that by missing out on the 2022 World Cup.
He still had goodwill but that defeat to Southgate’s side saw rumblings in the background and he decided to jump before he was pushed. His resignation led the way for former Napoli manager Luciano Spalletti to take charge and he’s very much put Italy in a good position to qualify, as they sit second in the group with a game in hand over third-placed Ukraine.
Gareth Southgate has pretty much a full complement of players to choose from, with only Bukayo Saka from the initial squad unavailable. The Arsenal attacker is still recovering from the hamstring issue that saw him miss out on the big Manchester City game for his club a week ago.
After seeing plenty of his perceived first XI rested for the Australia game on Friday night, the big names are all expected to return to the lineup. The biggest question mark is likely to be who sits in the middle of the park alongside Declan Rice with Kelvin Phillips, Jordan Henderson and Trent Alexander-Arnold all potentially getting the nod.
Kieran Trippier is set to start at left-back with the likes of Luke Shaw and Ben Chilwell unavailable and Harry Maguire continues to have the full support of his national team manager, which is rather different to what he’s experiencing day-to-day at club level.
Italy boss Luciano Spalletti has far more issues than his English counterpart and the headline news is that two of his players have been withdrawn from the squad due to a gambling investigation. Both Nicolo Zaniolo and Sandro Tonali therefore will not be available going forward until that issue is resolved.
Federico Chiesa, Ivan Provedel and Mattia Zaccagni were all called-up but did not join-up with the squad due to injury issues.
Everton fans may rub their eyes somewhat in disbelief should Moise Kean start as expected up top. The Juventus striker had a horrendous spell on Merseyside, scoring just four goals in all competitions in three years at Goodison Park. The 23-year-old has scored as many goals for the senior Italian side in just 13 appearances.
You would fully expect England to be the betting favourites for this match at Wembley Stadium and you’d be right. The Three Lions can be backed at odds of 8/13 to win the match. The draw is a 13/5 shot with Italy priced up at 5/1 to come and get revenge for their 1-2 defeat in the opening game of the group.
The Betfred traders and punters however do not expect it to be the most entertaining of games as we can see the Over 2.5 and Both Teams to Score markets at odds against. We are 6/5 for both as of the time of writing.
If you are the type of person who likes to make Correct Score Predictions then you’ll see that the market backs up the previous two as 1-0 is the shortest price available at just 9/2. The home side to win 2-0 is available at 6/1. A repeat of England’s 2-1 win in Naples has odds of 15/2, which is the same price as the 0-0 draw.
Looking at the anytime goalscorer market and no shock that Bayern Munich striker Harry Kane tops the charts at 13/10 to find the back of the net anytime. He’s 3/1 to be the first person to score.
Jude Bellingham comes in at 10/3 to score anytime, odds we’ll be returning to later and if you are an Everton or West Ham fan watching and have that sinking feeling a former player will return to England and actually score, unlike what they did at club level, then both Moise Kean and Gianluca Scamacca are 4/1 shots.
*Remember this is a Betfred Double Delight & Hat-Trick Heaven game, so if you place a bet in the first goalscorer market and they go on to score a second or a third goal in the game, we’ll double/treble the odds accordingly.
Bet 1 – Any Player to Score a Header @ 7/4
This bet comes from Betfred’s pre-packaged #PickYourPunt section on the market page.
The primary reason I like this bet is because of the quality England will have from set-pieces. Kieran Trippier is expected to start and the Newcastle man is one of the very best from free-kicks and corners.
With the likes of John Stones, Harry Maguire, Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham all six foot plus, all of them can cause trouble in Italy’s box.
Bet 2 – Jude Bellingham to Score @ 10/3
This is going to be a popular bet isn’t it? Everyone has seen what the young man has been doing over in Madrid and boy, it has been impressive. Ten goals in ten games is a fantastic record for any striker but when it comes from a central midfielder then it absolutely jumps off the page.
The 20-year-old may have only found the back of the net twice for his country but his game is clearly developing in a way that we should expect more from him in the final third. With Declan Rice holding the fort, the Real Madrid star will have licence to break the lines and join Harry Kane in attacking positions.
At 10/3, this means that we have an implied probability of Bellingham scoring on Tuesday night at 23%, so just shy of one-in-four. Considering his form at club level, that feels like a good price.
You can read all of our previews for qualifying and the tournament itself when it gets under way in our Euro 2024 Betting Tips section, so keep checking that out.