Last week I wrote that it was time for the Over 2.5 Goals Tips column to join the party having seen the Saturday Acca and BTTS having both won twice. Well it listened to me and we recorded a 15/1 winner (Chesterfield vs Gateshead was a postponement) but the other six-games all came up trumps.
We look to go back-to-back and once again put up seven games and just like last week, the price is 25/1 should all the games go…
Leg 1 – Arsenal vs Sheffield United @ 4/11
This might be a bit of a shock to you but despite this being the shortest price in this sevenfold, it was the final one I inserted when doing my research. Sometimes you get a gut feel that a game might not go as everybody thinks and I had that this morning.
However, after a bit of thought, it has made the accumulator. Games involving the Gunners have hit over 2.5 in every match at the Emirates bar the Manchester City slog-fest at the start of the month.
Sheffield United are certainly in the mix to be one of the worst Premier League sides in recent history. Even though it was a month ago, that 0-8 reversal at the hands of Newcastle United still looms large in my memory. If Anthony Gordon can tear them apart then what can the likes of Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli do down the flanks?
A home win looks extremely likely and a hefty one by three or four would not be a surprise at all.
Leg 2 – Ipswich Town vs Plymouth Argyle @ 4/9
Anyone who has been paying attention knows that if you want entertainment and goals, Portman Road is one of the places to go. In the eight games played at the venue so far this campaign, no fewer than 35 goals have been scored. Using my rudimentary mathematics, that is more than four-a-game.
Ipswich are one of those sides who you’d run away screaming from when considering the Over 2.5 on the road. They keep finding ways to win games 0-1. At home however, everything seems to change and they open it up. Of those 35 goals, they’ve scored 22 but conceded 13, which is not a great defensive record for a team with promotion aspirations.
Until we see at least one defensive tussle at the Suffolk ground though, I’ll keep putting it in this column. Only QPR vs Leicester is a shorter price in the Championship on Saturday afternoon and I’m avoiding that game.
Leg 3 – Sunderland vs Norwich City @ 4/6
I do have a second game from the Championship however, as two sides with a 69% record for Over 2.5 meet at the Stadium of Light.
The home side have endured a bit of a wobble in recent weeks having lost three-straight but this feels like an excellent spot for them to start turning things round. So much so that I’ve got them to win in my Saturday Accumulator Tips column this weekend.
When it comes purely to goals though, here is an interesting little tidbit. Norwich might be sitting relatively comfortably in mid-table but no-one has a worse defensive record. They have conceded 24 times in 13 games. The same as Southampton and QPR. Only Leicester and Ipswich (who currently sit first and second in the league) have a better scoring record.
All the tea leaves seem to be indicating this should be a good one.
Leg 4 – Harrogate Town vs Crewe Alexandra @ 8/11
When you do weekly columns like this, you start to pick up trends and if backing Ipswich home games is one, then putting in Crewe matches on the road is very much another. It is uncanny just how many goals are scored when the Railwaymen are the visiting team.
We are a few days away from the calendar turning to November and still, only once has this bet not been a winner for games where Lee Ball’s side are turning out in their away kit. In their last three games in this scenario, Over 5.5 would’ve been a winner as they drew 3-3 at Wrexham, lost 4-2 at Salford and beat Crawley last weekend 2-4.
Obviously this run won’t continue forever but this weekend they face a Harrogate side who have hit the all-important Over 2.5 mark in five-straight in all competitions. I can’t jump off this bandwagon just yet.
Leg 5 – Notts County vs Wrexham @ 4/7
This leg is included for two reasons. We all remember the way these sides went at it last season when vying for promotion out of the National League. They both scored plenty and were thoroughly entertaining to watch. This time around, they haven’t steered away from that pattern.
Only Newport County have a better Over 2.5 record than Notts County so far this timearound in League 2. On Saturday, the lesser-known Welsh side face a Gillingham side mired towards the bottom of this statistic, hence why I’ve avoided that game.
The home side here though have only been outscored by Crewe and only one side in the top-half have conceded more. That team…Wrexham.
Phil Parkinson’s side have been dynamite for Over 2.5 at home but on their travels, they have actually not been so great. This game however is very much a rivalry based on last season and I think both teams will be super-energised. If I could teleport into any game across the 3PM coupon on Saturday, I think this would be the one.
Leg 6 – Hampton & Richmond vs Torquay United @ 4/5
We had a nice winning leg down in the National League South a week ago and I’m doubling up this time around, with the first game coming from the Rocket Hospitality Beveree Stadium. It just rolls off the tongue.
Early on in the season, the home side were based on the road due to ground improvement works, therefore only four games have been played at the venue so far this campaign. A 1-0 win against Weymouth opened it up but since then, a 1-2 loss followed by 4-1 and 4-3 victories has meant it has been winner winner, chicken dinner for the Over 2.5 punters.
On Saturday they face a Torquay United side rocking a very impressive 85% record for this bet, having been involved in 11 games where at least three goals have been scored from the 13 played in the league. The stats are certainly pointing in the ‘more likely than not’ direction for this bet to come in at what is the joint best-price on our list.
Leg 7 – Truro City vs Tonbridge Angels @ 4/5
Both of our games from this division have odds of 4/5 and I’m going back to the Tonbridge Angels well for the second week on the spin. They did well for me a week ago, winning 3-2 and followed that up with a 4-1 defeat at Farnborough on Tuesday night. That has meant they’ve gone Over 2.5 for four of their five games in the month of October.
Truro are not in as impressive form for this bet in recent times and slightly worryingly, they have not hit this mark in their past three at home. This comes after hitting the mark in five of their opening six games of the season.
This leg is very-much inspired by the form of the away side in terms of scoring and conceding, rather than what the home team have been doing. The two are separated by just a point in the table and are relatively evenly matched, so both teams should have expectations to do well and that should help.
The team put up various Football Accumulator Tips throughout the week. Check them out on our Acca hub page…