The Indianapolis Colts are traveling down to Frankfurt on Sunday afternoon (14:30), alongside the New England Patriots to face off in Week 10. This will be the second straight Germany game after the Miami Dolphins took on the Kansas City Chiefs last weekend and just like last week, @NFLGirlUK is back with her thoughts and predictions.
The Colts aren’t talked about all that much, yet they’ve really been competitive this season. Sitting at a record of 4-5 right now, this group has consistently scored a lot of points, even with rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson missing the remainder of the season.
Indianapolis has scored over 20 points in every single game this season, the real problem has been on the defensive side of the football. They’ve given up over 30 points in four games, losing every single one of those matchups. The recipe for success is simple for them, limit their opponents to under 30 points, and there’s a strong chance they come out on top. The unfortunate part is that it’s been easier said than done.
Luckily, they get a good match-up here with a struggling Patriots offense, though we can’t just assume they’ll rise to the occasion. Plus, we still need to see Gardner Minshew and this offense do their part, though the return of Jonathan Taylor has certainly benefit in that regard. The Colts are just a very interesting team all-around, and one that has been obscenely entertaining in 2023, likely continuing that trend over in Germany this weekend.
As for the Patriots, it’s been really ugly. The offense just has zero rhythm, and part of that falls upon the overall lack of talent that’s residing in this offense. Mac Jones at times looks like a stable quarterback for the franchise, but other times he’s giving the ball away more than keeping it for his team. Then again, it’s a difficult situation to read when his best playmakers are Hunter Henry and Juju Smith-Schuster.
The weapons simply aren’t there, and it’s become glaringly obvious for a team that’s scored over 20 points just two times this entire season so far. With one of those two games watching them score 20 exactly. They’ve just not been good enough on that side of the ball, and it’s forced the defense to be out on the field far more often than they’d like. When exhaustion really starts to hit, that’s when this team falls apart.
They need this defense to stay competitive, and if the offense doesn’t do their job, the defense gets too much thrown at them. We’ve seen that in a number of their games this year, in their losses to the New Orleans Saints, the Philadelphia Eagles, the Miami Dolphins, and the Dallas Cowboys. It’s hard to even tell how they’re going to get out of this rut that they’re in.
The bottom line is that this team is just not very talented overall, and you’re seeing it on a weekly basis. Luckily, this matchup with the Colts could be good for them, as it’s a suspect defense open to big plays. If they can’t get going against the Colts, a more serious conversation needs to be had.
Reading the market page, the first thing you see is that key stat that the Patriots have won four of their past five against AFC South teams. Under that nugget, you see that they go into the game as underdogs at 11/10 compared to the Colts 10/13.
The handicap is pretty close to a toss-up with New England being given a 1.5pt head start. In terms of the Total Points market, that has been set at 42.5, which is pretty much middle of the pack compared to the other games this weekend.
Bet 1 – Patriots Over 19.5 Points @ 4/6
It would be fair to say that this New England offense is not going to be confused for one with Tom Brady standing back there and picking apart defenses anytime soon. They are simply not great on that side of the ball but as I noted earlier, Indy are susceptible to big plays, which gives Bill O’Brien and the offensive staff a chance to create points in chunks.
If not now then when next will New England get to 20 points? I think they have a decent chance against a Colts’ D who could blow a coverage or two in a big way on Sunday afternoon.
Bet 2 – Jonathan Taylor over 74.5 Rushing Yards @ 23/20
Getting Jonathan Taylor back has been a real boon to this struggling offense. The 24-year-old has been a monster in his two full seasons in the NFL and his decision to sit out at the start of the season for a new contract has certainly paid off financially.
He’s been the feature back in the past three weeks and cleared that 74.5 yard mark on two occasions. Given the lack of depth in the interior of the Pats D-line, there is every chance he passes that number again this week.
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